Pakistan could face 30% water shortage in early sowing season, IRSA warns

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has announced a concerning 30% water shortage at the commencement of the sowing season for major cash crops like rice and cotton.

The announcement on April 2 followed a meeting of the IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC), which determined a 30% shortage in the early Kharif season and a 7% shortage in the late Kharif season.

The IAC met to approve the anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the Kharif 2024 season from April to September 2024.

The IAC meeting, convened to approve the anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the Kharif 2024 season from April to September 2024, was chaired by the chairman of IRSA Abdul Hameed Mengal.

IRSA’s five members, secretaries of provincial Irrigation Departments from all four provinces, Wapda’s water member, and top officials from the Pakistan Meteorological Department attended the meeting.

Water shortage in early Kharif

Water shortage during early Kharif, from April 1 to June 10, could worsen if Wapda fails to address constraints in the Tarbela Dam, significantly affecting the cotton crops and rice seedlings in Sindh.

During early Kharif, there will be no water available for below Kotri water releases which are essential to stop the sea intrusion into Sindh’s agricultural land.

“Nearly 3.5 million acres of agricultural land in Sindh has already been eroded since 1956 during the sea intrusion because of non-availability of below Kotri water releases,” a top official of the provincial Irrigation Department told The News.

During the meeting, Sindh expressed its concerns over the water shortage issue and urged for the implementation of the Water Accord 1991 and its para-2 to allocate an additional 4-5 MAF (million acre-feet) of water. However, IRSA mentioned that the matter was pending with the Council of Common Interests (CCI) and that the current three-tier formula was being used for water distribution among the provinces. Sindh strongly opposed this method of water distribution.

Water availability during the Kharif season

In terms of water availability, the country is projected to have a total of 99.41 MAF of water during the entire Kharif season. Punjab will have 31.13 MAF of water in its canals, Sindh 28.81 MAF, Balochistan 2.85 MAF, and KP is to have 0.28 MAF. IRSA attributed the water shortage to lower-than-normal winter snowfall in the northern areas, affecting the catchment areas of the Indus and Jhelum Rivers which are essential for irrigation.

Climate change

Muhammad Azam Khan, an assistant researcher with IRSA, highlighted the impact of climate change on the water shortage.

“There was less snow than normal as a result of climate change affecting the country’s glaciers,” Muhammad Azam Khan, assistant researcher with Irsa, told AFP on April 3.

“This will have a direct impact on the availability of water for kharif crops in the summer.”

The water shortage gap is expected to decrease as the monsoon rains arrive later in the season. However, the meteorological department has forecast higher-than-normal temperatures during the monsoon season, increasing uncertainty.

Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy, contributing approximately 24% to its GDP. However, it has been criticized for being water inefficient.

“What this current water shortfall means for the crops is that authorities will have to better plan on how to utilize the water that is allotted to them,” Khan said.

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