The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) hosted its flagship event, Islamabad Conclave 2024, themed “Pakistan and the Evolving Global Order,” on December 3-4, at its office in Islamabad.
The discussions explored critical geopolitical dynamics through three working sessions, addressing the roles of middle powers, strategic shifts, and major power competition.
Session III: “Space for Middle Powers & Global South”
The India Study Centre (ISC) at ISSI organized the third session, focusing on “Space for Middle Powers & Global South.” The keynote speaker was Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Vice Chancellor, Beaconhouse National University, accompanied by Prof. Dr. Arshi Saleem Hashmi, Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies, NDU; Dr. Niu Haibin, Director, Shanghai Institute for International Studies; Dr. Ali Awadh Asseri, former Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to Pakistan; and Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd.), President IPRI. The session was moderated by Dr. Khurram Abbas, Director ISC.
Middle Powers and Global South as Pivotal Players in the Global Order
Dr. Moeed Yusuf emphasized the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global framework and the critical roles middle powers play. “The most successful middle powers are those that embrace multi-alignment, deftly navigating complex international dynamics without resorting to binary choices,” he remarked, recommending a focus on geo-economics for Pakistan.
Prof. Dr. Arshi Saleem Hashmi argued against viewing the Global South as monolithic. “Global South should not merely be viewed as an underdeveloped or struggling region; it encompasses emerging economies and rising powers that are gaining influence on the world stage,” she explained, highlighting the overshadowing of traditional North-South divides by South-South cooperation.
Dr. Niu Haibin explored the abstract nature of middle powers and the Global South. “The global disorder and conflicts have created new space for countries who seek anti-protectionist and pro-inclusive policies,” he said. He also stressed China’s identification as a member of the Global South and its advocacy for inclusivity through initiatives like BRICS enlargement.
Dr. Ali Awadh Asseri described middle powers as pragmatic bridge-builders, stating, “The new world order will be shaped significantly by these rising and emerging middle powers, which advocate for a more inclusive global community.” He emphasized Saudi Arabia’s role in Middle Eastern stability.
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd.) highlighted Pakistan’s diplomatic capabilities, saying, “Overwhelming support for temporary membership at UNSC is an example of Pakistan’s diplomatic prowess.” He underscored the need for economic interdependence and political stability, recommending Pakistan leverage its youth and strategic location for development.
The session concluded with speakers identifying five responsibilities for middle powers: managing U.S.-China rivalry, promoting peaceful coexistence, forming issue-based alliances, fostering economic interdependence, and seeking common ground among nations.
Session II: “Evolving Strategic Environment: Impact on Order, Institutions and Norms”
Hosted by ISSI’s Arms Control & Disarmament Centre (ACDC), the second session addressed the evolving strategic environment. The keynote speaker, General (Retd.) Zubair Mahmood Hayat NI(M) HI(M), former Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, was joined by Ambassador Zamir Akram, former Ambassador of Pakistan; Dr. Andrey Pavlov, Saint Petersburg State University; Dr. Moonis Ahmar, University of Karachi; and Ambassador Tahir Hussain Andrabi, Director General (ACDIS), MOFA.
Analyzing Global Shifts and Regional Challenges
General (Retd.) Zubair Mahmood Hayat identified unpredictability, multipolarity, and technological advancements as key challenges. “Technological advancements like AI, cyber technologies, and biotechnology are not only altering how nations interact but also creating new conflicts,” he stated, highlighting the decline of norms and institutions like the UN.
Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director ACDC, stressed multilateralism and constructive dialogue as essential for Pakistan’s security.
Ambassador Zamir Akram discussed “Dynamics of Global Strategic Environment,” pointing to the problematic India-U.S. partnership. “India’s role as a ‘net security provider’ is problematic,” he said, advocating stronger ties with China.
Dr. Andrey Pavlov highlighted the decline of the arms control regime, noting, “There has been a deterioration of the arms control regime from the ABM treaty to New START, with no hopes of revival of the last U.S.-Russia bilateral arms control.”
Dr. Moonis Ahmar linked peace in South Asia to improved Indo-Pak relations. “Unless there was betterment of Indo-Pak relations, peace and stability will remain elusive,” he argued, emphasizing human security and governance.
Ambassador Tahir Hussain Andrabi underscored Pakistan’s restraint, stating, “Pakistan, on the other hand, exercises restraint and responsibility and avoidance of arms races.” He called for universal UN resolution application and multilateral cooperation.
Session I: “Major Power Competition: Emerging Realities”
The China Pakistan Study Centre (CPSC) organized the first session titled “Major Power Competition: Emerging Realities.” The panelists included Ambassador Tehmina Janjua, former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan; Prof. Dr. Hu Shisheng, CICIR; Dr. Farhan Hanif Siddiqui, SPIR, Quaid-i-Azam University; and Dr. Andreea Stoin-Karadeli, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. The session was moderated by Dr. Talat Shabbir, Director CPSC.
Understanding the U.S.-China Rivalry and Global Competition
Ambassador Tehmina Janjua emphasized the challenges smaller states face amidst U.S.-China rivalry. “Smaller states are more likely to accede to demands of external powers. However, this situation can be averted by creating neutral alliances of the small and medium-sized states,” she remarked.
Dr. Talat Shabbir highlighted Pakistan’s unique geopolitical position, noting, “Pakistan holds the potential to contribute significantly to peace, connectivity, and economic growth in an era defined by competition and collaboration among major powers.”
Dr. Hu Shisheng highlighted the BRI as a key platform for connectivity. “BRI remains a key driver of both hard and soft connectivity—linking countries not only through infrastructure but also through cultural and economic partnerships,” he said.
Dr. Farhan Hanif Siddiqui discussed the “multiplex” nature of the global system, saying, “The international system is no longer solely defined by military power or ideological alignment but by a broader set of interconnected interests, actors, and narratives.”
Dr. Andreea Stoin-Karadeli addressed nuclear uncertainties and cooperation amid competition. “Despite increasing competition, the only way to address certain issues is to have cooperation, like in cybersecurity, global health challenges, and pandemics,” she stated.
The Islamabad Conclave 2024 facilitated rigorous debates on global challenges, offering actionable insights for navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. The discussions underscored Pakistan’s potential role in fostering stability and cooperation within an evolving international order.