The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a drought alert for several regions of the country, warning of worsening conditions due to a 40% drop in rainfall over the last several months and rising temperatures.
The latest advisory follows a previous warning on December 9, 2024, and highlights that rainfall from September 1, 2024, to January 15, 2025, was well below the normal levels across Pakistan. As a result, key agricultural regions in the country, including Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab, are facing serious drought-like conditions.
The PMD’s report reveals that Sindh has faced a 52% reduction in rainfall, Balochistan has seen a 45% shortfall, and Punjab’s rainfall deficit stands at 42%. These provinces are likely to face continued drought conditions, with limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures expected to aggravate the situation further.
Drought-like conditions likely to aggravate
“The drought is particularly affecting rain-fed areas,” the PMD advisory said. “Drought conditions are likely to aggravate in the coming months due to limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures, which may lead to moderate drought in some regions. Flash droughts are also anticipated.”
In Punjab, areas such as Attock, Chakwal, Rawalpindi/Islamabad, Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Rajanpur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, and Dera Ghazi Khan have already started experiencing mild drought conditions.
Similarly, Sindh’s regions, including Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Karachi, Hyderabad, and Tharparkar, are also facing drought-like conditions. Balochistan’s Ormara, Kharan, Turbat, Panjgur, Lasbela, Dalbandin, and adjacent areas are among the worst-hit, with water availability diminishing rapidly.
Water Scarcity challenges in Pakistan
Pakistan, with a population of 241.49 million as of the 2023 census, is already facing significant water scarcity. The country ranks fourth globally for water consumption, and its agricultural sector uses more freshwater than any other sector. The combination of a growing population, declining rainfall, and rising temperatures has led to an increasingly dire water situation.
Experts have long warned that the country could face “absolute water scarcity” by 2025, a situation further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. The per capita water availability, which stood at around 5,000 cubic meters per person in 1947, has dropped drastically to just 1,000 cubic meters today, and this figure is expected to decline further in the coming decades.
“The lack of rains has had a major financial impact on farmers, whether they have a big holding or a small one,” said Malik Asghar, chairman of the Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association Punjab. “Potato is a staple in my area. The average is very low this year. Usually, we could easily get 100 to 120 sacks per acre. This winter we have only gotten about 60 sacks per acre.”
The agricultural sector, which contributes nearly a quarter of Pakistan’s GDP and employs 37% of the labor force, is already suffering. Farmers are reporting reduced crop yields, particularly in the wheat-producing regions.
Ishfaq Ahmad Jatt, a wheat farmer in the Multan area, explained that his harvest has been “badly affected” by the lack of rainfall. “Even five years ago, we used to get winter rains for a week at a time. They were light rains but they were enough for us,” he said. “If it doesn’t rain soon, you can expect production to drop by as much as 50 percent.”